Breaking protocol for playoffs
“In five years, it will seem just as silly as all the other fine philosophies I’ve had.”
--From the novel “The Sun Also Rises”
In the past, I’ve always used the same strategy in the playoffs that one road team will win in each round. Of course, that was back in a time when home teams were favored nine times out of ten. Now, I’m scrambling for a new system.
My playoff prediction method was on its way out before its official retirement this season anyway. The past three years, a team playing in the Wildcard Round won the Super Bowl. In fact, in two of the past three years, the Super Bowl champion did not have a home game in the entire playoffs, banging out three straight road victories to reach the neutral site championship. This is worth noting for two reasons: All four road teams are favored this weekend and a lot of people are legitimately expecting the four wildcard teams to wreak postseason havoc.
Each season, I find myself marveling at what a crazy year it’s been in the NFL. And it gets worse as time goes on. By way of example, I present some of the top storylines of the 2008 season:
*The team with the best record is led by Kerry Collins.
*Last season’s 16-0 team lost its star quarterback, still went 11-5 and missed the playoffs while another team finished 8-8 and gets a home game in the first round.
*The team with the second best record in the league should get a bye and home-field advantage but will not due to being in the same division as the team with the best record.
*21 of 32 teams finished 8-8 or better.
*The Detroit Lions finished 0-16.
All things considered, the last part is the most incredible. The common phrase is that even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. But they just never did it. It was like the scene in Eight Mile where Eminem freezes up in his freestyle battle, except the Lions did it 16 times in a row.
Here are my picks for this weekend:
Atlanta Falcons (11-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
The Cardinals effort over the last four weeks of the season since clinching their division was about as pathetic as Notre Dame breaking its dry spell on bowl games by beating Hawaii after a 6-6 season. If recent history in the NFL tells us anything—besides that there’s no method to the madness—it’s that a team cannot afford to rest too long before the postseason. This is true even if you’re the home team hosting a rookie quarterback.
Prediction: Atlanta 28, Arizona 20
Indianapolis Colts (12-4) at San Diego (8-8)
As I write this, Colts team president Bill Polian is on the phone with any league official that will listen in an attempt to call shenanigans. Not only were the Colts four games better than the Chargers, but they also have the tiebreaker after winning in San Diego earlier this season. Nevertheless, the Colts were unable to win their division and the Chargers did by defeating Denver Sunday night.
It’s all or nothing in a single game here which should be scary for Colts fans. We don’t have the best track record against San Diego recently. This year’s Super Bowl winner will be a team of destiny, but one could make a case for either of these teams to fit that bill. San Diego does have two stellar tailbacks to go against a porous run defense that will be without its defensive captain. The Chargers also have home-field advantage, recent success against Indianapolis and a pretty decent winning streak. And the Colts? Well, the Colts have Peyton Manning.
Prediction: Indianapolis 31, San Diego 17
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Miami Dolphins (11-5)
I have a dream and it goes a little something like this: Road teams win in both the wildcard and divisional round of the playoffs, setting up a 5 vs. 6 match-up in the AFC Championship to be hosted in Indianapolis. If Indianapolis wins Saturday night, we’re 25% of the way there. Miami’s turnaround has been unreal and could be extended into a game at Pittsburgh. Like the Colts, the Ravens have already won on the road against their first round opponent. I don’t expect the Wildcat formation and freaky trick plays to fool Ed Reed and Ray Lewis too much.
Prediction: Baltimore 13, Miami 7
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) at Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
The Eagles really might be this year’s team of destiny. They snuck in the playoffs only after Tampa and Chicago both lost winnable games in the final regular season week. And that was after being left for dead following Andy Reid’s benching of Donovan McNabb for not knowing there were ties in football. Minnesota’s problem goes by the name Tarvaris Jackson, who unfortunately is the team’s quarterback. Jackson often throws the ball into the third row or directly into the ground, which is actually preferred to the alternative of fumbling the ball. Think Rex Grossman that can scramble.
It was just two years ago, however, that Rex was able to ride a tough defense and good running game to the Super Bowl. All four road teams can’t win this week, can they? I’m thinking not, which is why I’m going with the Vikings and their noisy dome.
Prediction: Minnesota 20, Philadelphia 17 (OT)
